Posted by Brandon M. Prosek @BrandonProsek
Writer/Comedian/Director/Host of So I Saw Show
Brandon M. Prosek

We are only a few weeks from the release of DC's Suicide Squad directed by David Ayer starring Margot Robbie, Will Smith, Viola Davis and features Jared Leto. This will mark the fourth superhero film of 2016 and the second DC film of the year following Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. This has been a somewhat mediocre summer with some hits, but more so A LOT of misses in the box office.

As we approach August, the film that can be one of the biggest blockbusters or another superhero movie that floats under the radar financially is DC's Suicide Squad. In this article I'm going to discuss how well we think financially this film will do. Any box office facts will be pulled from Box Office Mojo's website and will reflect based off the date this article is posted. Let's jump in!

One thing I will give to the marketing team behind Suicide Squad, is that they are doing a TREMENDOUS job opposed to whoever was handling the marketing behind Batman v Superman. The reason these trailers are working better than BvS is because they are highlighting more humor and giving character moments while not giving away the entire film. The trailers have me both interested and have a feeling of relief that the film can be fun opposed to BvS. Personally, Margot Robbie's take on Harley Quinn has me more excited than any of the other characters.

When looking back at a majority of the Batman v Superman trailers, they were hit and miss. There was a huge backlash from the internet when they revealed Doomsday in one of the final trailers. Fans felt like they could piece together the entire movie, which defeats the purpose of paying to see it on the big screen. With Suicide Squad I can say I don't know where they plan to take the ending.

We all know Joker is a huge discussion piece with this film because Jared Leto is the first person to tackle the icon villain role in a live-action film after the late Heath Ledger won an Oscar for his performance in The Dark Knight. Will the Joker be a huge role like a lot of the marketing material shows? Or will he simply be a side piece in the overall plot? One character to compare this to is how Marvel introduced Spider-Man into the Marvel Cinematic Universe in Captain America: Civil War.

Marvel decided to leave Spider-Man out of their promotional materials until the final trailer a few weeks before opening weekend as a last minute push for fans to buy their tickets.

Much like the Joker character, we've seen two other actors play the role of Spider-Man in live-action films. Instead of introducing the new MCU Spider-Man in his own solo movie they added him to an ensemble cast. This could be a great decision by DC with introducing their new Joker in a group film instead of another solo Batman movie. We've already seen two of those and that could prove repetitive. Spider-Man was only in the film roughly 30 or so minutes. That may be the best option for this Joker. That way it leaves audiences wanting to see more in the future.

Out of the entire cast of Batman villains, Joker is without a doubt the most known compared to Harley Quinn, Deadshot, Captain Boomerang and such. Can the Joker character rake in enough general audience members to go see this? Production budget for both Civil War and BvS was $250 million. Before we discuss further let's do a quick box office breakdown:

Captain America: Civil War Domestic = Over $406 Million
Worldwide = Over $1.1 Billion

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice Domestic = Over $330 Million
Worldwide = Over $870 Million

By the numbers it may look like BvS did nearly as well as Civil War did; however, Warner Bros. stated that the film needed to gross about $1 billion for BvS to be considered a financial success. If this were the results of perhaps a lesser-known property like a Cyborg film — or even Aquaman — they man not have been as upset, but this was Batman and Superman with the first-live action debut of Wonder Woman. Not a good sign for their second film outing in their newly planned DC Cinematic Universe. Marvel had Civil War as their 13th film in the MCU, which attributed to their major financial success.

The interesting comparison for Suicide Squad is actually MCU's Guardians of the Galaxy. Both films star an ensemble of lesser-known characters described like a rag-rag group of troublemakers opening in the beginning of August at the tail end of the summer. Guardians raked in over $770 million worldwide off a $170 million budget in 2014. I'm sure Suicide Squad has a larger budget than $170 million, but we'll see once that number is announced.

Could this rather lackluster summer at the box office be the key to making the Squad a hit? Perhaps audiences have been annoyed with everything else and feel this film can be different? Maybe diehard Batman fans will convince their non-comic book fan friends to come to the theaters just to see the new Joker and Harley Quinn and their love-hate relationship? I'm not sure. Maybe fans will want to see Will Smith after his films in recent years have become more sporadic. This film truly is a puzzle.

Box Office Prediction: $300–$325 Million Domestic Gross

I have a feeling that this won't be a complete box office smash, but I think it'll make it's money back. With the way things have been going this past year, early reviews can make or break a film. After the initial weekend, bad reviews from critics or backlash of fans can cause a significant second week drop-off.

Civil War brought in $179 million opening week then had a 59 percent drop-off.
BvS brought in $209 million opening week then had nearly a 70 percent drop-off.

Let's take predictions at the box office below!

Poll

How will Suicide do at the box office?

Thank you for reading! If you'd like to check out more of my creative work I write, direct and produce content on a channel called Entertainment Buffet where we create sketches, web shows, and more. I also host a movie review show where my latest film I reviewed is Ghostbusters. Attached below is one of our original sketches from the past where we have more coming later this year including animation! Below that is also a link to our Entertainment Buffet Podcast please share, comment, and enjoy our work :)