Now, there are few box office certainties in this world, but if there were to be one, it would surely be that Disney's Beauty and the Beast, set for release March 17, will make an absolute killing at the #boxoffice. It is, after all, one of the most eagerly anticipated movies of all time, from a studio that seems to have forgotten how to fail commercially. For the films coming out in the weeks preceding its release, then, opening weekend grosses might just be a whole lot more important, seeing as they're all likely to see a significant financial drop-off the moment Beauty rears its head.
Which, of course, makes the question of just how much #Fox's #Logan, set for release this coming Friday (March 3), can make on its opening weekend all the more pressing, not least because Kong: Skull Island arrives the weekend after. As such, it's worth asking whether or not the box office analysts are correct in their current predictions — and whether or not what they're currently anticipating in terms of revenue will be enough for Fox. In other words?
Could 'Logan' Really Make $170 Million In Its Opening Weekend?
Well, according to the folks over at Deadline, yes, it absolutely could. The film is currently predicted to earn at least $170 million in its opening weekend — a figure surely helped by its consistently glowing reviews and strong early buzz from previews.
The only problem? That $170 million is a worldwide gross. Y'see, while Fox's Deadpool may have made a whopping great $132 million in its opening weekend last February, and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice an even larger $166 million last March, those were just the films' domestic box office figures — and there's little reason to believe that Logan is going to hit anything close to those numbers at home. Instead, analysts are currently predicting a domestic haul in the region of $65 million, with the international market bringing in close to $105 million.
Which would absolutely mean that Logan made $170 million in its opening weekend, just not in the way we might immediately think. By way of comparison, Deadpool made $264 million on its opening weekend if you factor in the international box office, and Batman v Superman a distinctly vast $422 million.
So, Just How Well Would 'Logan' Be Doing With A $170 Million Haul?
Well, not badly, by any stretch of the imagination, but also not quite as well as many would have hoped. A $65 million domestic haul would place it second among #Wolverine movies, behind the critically-derided X-Men Origins: Wolverine, for instance, which made $85 million back in 2009. Similarly, it would mean that it made a strikingly similar amount of money to 2016's #XMenApocalypse, a film that was widely considered to have disappointed with a $65 million domestic take on its opening weekend, and a $165 million opening overall. Logan's R-rating would likely temper much of that disappointment, but in the wake of Deadpool's breakout success last February, it's difficult to imagine that Fox wasn't hoping to beat Apocalypse a little more substantially.
What's more, with both Kong: Skull Island and Beauty and the Beast arriving hot on its heels, there's every possibility that Logan could see a huge box office drop-off in the weeks to come — something that could easily turn a weak opening weekend into a distinctly disappointing total. X-Men: Apocalypse ultimately wound up making a solid (if unspectacular) $543 million worldwide, and were Logan to fall well below that number — something that now seems entirely possible — it's worth asking whether that would be enough for Fox to continue gambling with non-Deadpool-themed R-rated movies.
Only time (and our wallets) will tell, it seems.
What do you think, though? Do you think a $65 million domestic opening would make Logan a "hit"? Let us know below!