We've been hearing about developments on Deadpool 2 at quite a frequent rate these past few months, from the confirmation of two fan-favorite mutants and a rumored casting for Cable, to contenders for the role of Domino. Overall, tidbits that have us incredibly excited for the sequel.
However, despite how far along in development the movie seems to be, Fox has not given us an official release date for it. It's worth noting the IMDb page gives March 2nd as the date, but even so—still unconfirmed and unofficial. Leaving us like its trademark titular character:
Fortunately, a new piece of information has come out that allows us to figure it out for ourselves. My Entertainment World - a website dedicated to listing upcoming productions, which has given us accurate reports in the past - listed #Deadpool2 as starting filming on May 1, 2017.
Furthermore, the website Omega Underground spotted that What's Filming? - a page dedicated to listing past, current and upcoming productions in Vancouver - listed Deadpool 2 as going into production on May 1st as well:
Both sources revealed the movie's production title to be "Love Machine," which is nothing short of perfect for Deadpool. The production start date being listed by two credible sources tells us this is a very reliable piece of information. But what does this have to do with a release date, you ask? Well, past evidence.
Fox's Mystery Dates
There are currently six mystery Fox/Marvel movies scheduled. The dates are:
- October 6, 2017
- January 12, 2018
- March 2, 2018
- June 29, 2018
- November 2, 2018
- February 14, 2019
Now that we've established those, we need to take a look at #Fox's various production schedules to give us an idea of what to expect filming-wise from Deadpool 2:
- X-Men: Days of Future Past:
Began filming in April of 2013 and came out on May 10, 2014. That's a 13 month-gap between production and release.
Began shooting on March 23, 2015 and finished on May 29, 2015. It was then released on February 12, 2016.
Began production on May 2, 2016, finished on August 19, 2016, and hits theaters on March 3, 2017.
As you can see, #Deadpool was the one with the shortest schedule thanks to its considerably smaller scale compared to other X-Men movies. Production merely spanned two months and was released eight months later.
Which Release Date Fits Deadpool 2's Development Process?
The October 2017 and January 12 dates are out of the question because, even though they were originally for Marvel films, they have since been reassigned to Kingsman: The Golden Circle and Maze Runner: The Death Cure, respectively. The November 2018 and February 2019 dates are too far away considering Deadpool's quick production process. Yes, Cable could make the making-of process a bit harder, but those dates imply a much longer time in the oven for Deadpool 2, which we know is not the case.
The last two contenders are March 2 and June 29, 2018, both strong choices. On one hand, we have March 2, which could closely mirror Deadpool's development (and, again, is already listed on the IMDb page). Tim Miller previously discussed the team's intention to keep a small scale for the sequel, stating:
"I don't think bigger is better. You tell a story that's organic to the character. Deadpool's world doesn't mean you have to go bigger. I don't think the fans of the movie like it because we had big effects."
So, if that formula is followed again, it would mean two to three months of filming, leaving seven months available for post production. Plus, it would be right around the two-year mark for sequels.
However, like I said above, the movie is expected to tackle more expensive and time-consuming elements than its predecessor, such as time travel and complicated characters like Cable and Domino, on top of returning players from Deadpool. Those could easily make for a more extensive production process.
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Then there's June 29, 2018. Let's say the movie takes approximately four months to shoot. That would mean Deadpool 2 would wrap production around September or October of 2017, leaving about nine months for post production. That allows Fox to comfortably release the sequel on that date.
So, to summarize it, out of these two contenders, which one is the likeliest release date? March 2. It gives Fox just the right separation between Deadpool 2 and its predecessor to keep our favorite Merc with a Mouth fresh in the minds of audiences. And it's a season which has already been proven a success for superhero movies.