The British Academy of Films and Television Arts (BAFTA) awards nominations were just recently announced. Looking over the Movies Nominated in the Best Film Category, I discovered some interesting facts that seem to sway the outcome away from the seeming Winner in the direction of other film(s). Below are the five Nominees for Best Film along with some facts on each movie. I am listing them in order from the Picture I believe will win according to my research down to the Picture I don't believe has a chance of winning. Keep in mind that this is my opinion, based on my own research and mathematical study:
1. Gravity (Sandra Bullock, George Clooney, Ed Harris- Voice only) - This Film directed by Mexican-Born past BAFTA Winner Alfonso Cuarón tells the fictional story of a Medical Engineer on her first mission and an astronaut on his last mission fighting to survive in outer space after their shuttle is destroyed during a space walk. It has a Critics rating of 96 and a Viewer's rating of 8.3 stars on IMDb, which are both slightly lower than the numbers for 12 Years A Slave. However, when you divide the Critics rating into the Viewers rating you come up with 11.566 as the average whereas 12 Years A Slave's number is lower. (See number 3)
2. American Hustle (Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, Jeremy Renner, Jennifer Lawrence) - This film directed by American-Born past BAFTA winner David O. Russell tells the Fictional Story of a con-artist couple who is forced to work with the FBI in order to bring down a Power broker with MAFIA ties. It has a Critics rating of 90 and a Viewers rating of 7.9, which again are lower than 12 Years A Slave. However, once you do the math, this film comes out with an 11.392 average which is .113 HIGHER than 12 Years A Slave.
3. 12 Years a Slave (Chiwetel Ejiofor, Michael Fussbender, Brad Pitt) - This film directed by English-Born past BAFTA winner Steve McQueen (NOT the Actor) is the TRUE story of a black man in Pre-Civil War America, who is abducted from New York and sold into slavery for 12 years. It has the highest Critics rating of 97 AND the highest Viewers rating of 8.6, which would lead you to believe it is a slam-dunk as the winner. However, once you divide the numbers you get an average of 11.279. This puts it in third place - .113 behind American Hustle and .287 behind Gravity. Even though this film may in fact win, it always pays to look into all factors before assuming it won't have any competition.
4. Captain Phillips (Tom Hanks, Barkhad Abdi) - This film directed by English-Born past BAFTA winner Paul Greengrass tells the TRUE story of a U.S. flagged Container Ship Captain's relationship with the Somali Pirate Ship Captain who captures him. The Critics rate it an 83 and the Viewers give it a 8.1 star rating. This gives it an overall average of 10.246, a little over a point behind 12 Years A Slave.
5. Philomena (Dame Judi Dench, Steve Coogan) - This film directed by English-Born DOUBLE past BAFTA winner (Both for TV, not Film work) Stephen Frears tells the story of a journalist who happens upon the story of a woman searching for her son, whom she had to give up when she was forced to live in a convent as a young woman. The Critics give it a 76 and the Viewers second the sentiment with a 7.9 star rating. This gives it an average of only 9.620, over half a point behind Captain Phillips and 1.946 points behind Gravity.
There you have them, my list of the five nominees for the BAFTA in Best Film listed according to mathematical likelihood of winning. What do you think? Is 12 Years A Slave going to win no matter what the math says? Is Philomena going to win because they have the home advantage? Good luck to ALL the Nominees.
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