So recently, the internet has been ablaze with speculation about the future of Captain America. Evidently because Sebastian Stan, the actor playing Buck Barnes aka The Winter Soldier has signed a nine picture deal with Marvel while Chris Evans' contract will be coming to a close within the next few films, people have started to think that the films will mirror the comics in the manner that Captain America will die, opening the door for Bucky to take up the mantle.
Most of the conversation that I hear on the subject seems to gravitate toward the idea that because of the epic manner of the forthcoming Avengers films, with Ultron being in the second one and Thanos believed to be in the third, that it will be in one of these films that the good captain will meet his demise. I completely disagree...
I think that Captain will survive [The Avengers: Age Of Ultron](movie:293035) aka Avengers 2... and die in [Captain America 3](movie:994409).
There are Two main reasons why this makes sense to me:
One - Storytelling
If we use the comics as a general blueprint for how the films will progress, then we can see that Captain America has survived not only the horrors of WWII, but a multitude of dangerous adventures since then, however, it was not on one of these deadly journeys where Steve met his doom, but it was while walking out of a courtroom with a police escort where he was assassinated by a sniper.
This series of events gives the story a grim sense of irony, presenting you with a man who has survived things that no normal human could even dream of facing, only to be bested by something that plague "normal" people every day. It would be dramatic and tragic to have Captain Rogers die in the heat of battle against Ultron or Thanos, however it would be much more tragic, and more of a surprise to the audience if he were to die in his own film by something as mundane as a bullet.
Having captain America die in Avengers, would give the other characters something to struggle with when the get back to their stand alone films, but I believe that if he were to die in his own movie, it would present a much different dynamic and be more interesting showing the team coming back together to fight without him.
Two - Business
At the end of the day, movies are out to make money, and if Marvel studios does have plans to kill Captain America, then it would make more sense to do it in his stand alone film.
If you kill Cap in an Avengers movie it will be tragic, people will be upset, but for the most part, everyone is still going to come back and watch the next avengers movie. On the other hand, if you kill him in Avengers, with the intention of having him replaced in the next stand alone movie, not as many people will come to see it.
This is why I think that if they decide to kill him, they will do it within the stand alone movie. That way, you can have Bucky in the movie, getting the audience used to seeing him as the good guy and liking him, Kill Steve, have bucky pick up the shield to avenge his friend and have [Nick Fury](movie:589189) suggest that he carry on the legacy so the world can still have the symbol of captain america. This way, more people are likely to come back for the next film.
Let me know whatcha think..