Every year at the box office, we have records shattered, as well as dreams. Last year, The Lone Ranger played that role, and before that we had movies like John Carter and Battleship. It's just a reality of the business; movies can flop. Here is a list of a couple films I think will be flops this year.
1) Jupiter Ascending
The Wachowski's are at it again, pumping out a fairly original science fiction film. Kudos to them, I admire their tendency to go off the beaten path and try new things. I really hope this one doesn't do too badly, but of course, it will.
If any of you remember their last project, Cloud Atlas, you'll remember it only made $130 million on a $102 million budget. $28m profit right? Wrong, when taking into account advertising and what not, this turned out to be a flop. That doesn't necessarily mean this will flop too, they do have some similarities. Both films are (near) original sci-fi, which has been taking a feast of famine type pattern. You have Avatar becoming the highest grossing movie ever, but you also have movies like Pacific Rim barely scraping by, relying on China to not be a total loss. Then add in the off-beat Channing Tatum get up (is he like a werewolf or something?) and you may have just shooed away that whole female demographic.
Nearly equal in famous faces in the cast list, other, larger, space movies to come out the same year (GotG, Interstellar), it sadly looks like there won't be any space (get it?) for this flick.
2) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Michael Bay isn't exactly known for flops. You gotta give it to him, everywhere he goes, money follows. So what's wrong with TMNT? He's attached as a producer and there are plenty fans still willing to see it.
Well I'd like to draw a connect to the aforementioned, The Lone Ranger. Now on the surface they are completely different. Or are they? Both are made from old, beloved properties. Both feature big name producers. Both cast the biggest supporting actor in essentially the same role as their last collaboration (Depp as Sparrow and Tonto, Fox as that hot girl in Transformers and as that hot girl in TMNT). Plus I have looked on many a "most anticipated movies of 2014" lists and haven't heard a peep on this one. Its already being forgotten. Now this is opening off the heels of much anticipated GotG, coming from a studio that (arguably) knows how to do heroes right. And I can't see this making a notable dent in the box office. It's saving grace is its modest budget, at $125m, it's around $75m cheaper than The Lone Ranger. While it may make back all expenses, no one is going to be bragging about it.
3)The Maze Runner
Speaking of feast or famine, the young adult book adaptions genre may be the best example of this trend. On the feast end you have box office heavy-weight franchises like the Hunger Games or Twilight, and in the Famine corner you have, The Host, Ender's Game, Vampires Academy, Beautiful Creatures, Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, I am Number Four, and so on. If you'd notice, famine side has way more titles, and could be adding another very soon. The only hope for this is to follow in the footsteps of Divergent and become a moderate success, a rare sighting. While it's budget may be low, with no official numbers, I'll guess somewhere around $100m, last year's Ender's Game had a similar position on the calendar, and had a big name attached to it.
4) X-Men: Days of Future Past
Lets start out by saying that even at $200m, the film will have massive expenditures to pay for the huge cast. Then put in advertising costs of a summer blockbuster and Fox will probably need to make around $600m to start breaking even. Easy right? Well it just so happens that for the X-Men franchise, it isn't quite. This franchise has struggled at the box office as other properties have thrived. They've never had a movie gross $600m, and with some lackluster entries being clearest in our memories, it's tough to see this breaking any sort of records.
Now even with a fully saturated superhero market, DoFP is a massive spectacle of a superhero movie, with more characters gathering than The Avengers and Lord of the Rings combined. And if we learned anything from the Avengers, there is strength in numbers. But alas, while exceeding in one category, it appears that this film also has a highly complex plot, one some may seem as not worthy of spending time to figure out.
Among this list would be Maleficent; which reminds me too much of Jack the Giant Slayer or things of that nature, Guardians of the Galaxy; which could either be a huge success or huge failure, Godzilla; which is basically Pacific Rim without the fun robots and exciting color pallet, Edge of Tomorrow; another confusing time travel Tom Cruise machine, and Hercules; we've already had one Hercules movie flop this year, isn't that enough?