Seeing that Tony Stark is seen by the Marvel higher ups as an immortal and pivotal character, I don't see him going anywhere any day soon. But, what about THOR?
We've seen him go from the arrogant and punished son to the hero everyone knew he could be. He's grown into the role that makes him also a pivotal part of the Marvel Trinity. But there's change in the air. The next phase of the Avengers in the MCU sees a change in the roster. Everyone knows that Chris Evans, Robert Downey Jr and Chris Hemsworth are all coming to the end of their contracts at the end of [The Avengers 3](movie:738027). I believe this will be when the new age of the Avengers will begin.
But will Thor be there? There is a dark cloud hanging over them. There are rumors that the character killing madman known as Joss Whedon is at it again and is planning to off at least one major character? We've already determined that Feige seems to see a future for Tony Stark. That leaves Thor or Cap.
What does the future hold for the Thunder god?
Last seen, Thor had stopped the mad Dark Elf, Malekith the Accursed, from possessing the Aether/the power gem and turning the nine worlds to darkness. We also know something Thor doesn't. The fact is his half-brother, Loki, has usurped the throne doing gods know what with Odin. Loki is in firm control of Asgard through his favorite art: trickery.
That brings us to [Thor 3](movie:956858). I've heard several rumors, but the one that has the most traction and is most touted is Ragnarok.
In Norse mythology, Ragnarök is a series of future events, including a great battle foretold to ultimately result in the death of a number of major figures (including the gods Odin, Thor, Týr, Freyr, Heimdallr, and Loki), the occurrence of various natural disasters, and the subsequent submersion of the world in water. Afterward, the world will resurface anew and fertile, the surviving and returning gods will meet, and the world will be repopulated by two human survivors.
The end of days. Armageddon. The Apocalypse. It comes by many names but this is how the Norse saw it.
The world tree Yggdrasil shudders and groans. The jötunn Hrym comes from the east, his shield before him. The Midgard serpent Jörmungandr furiously writhes, causing waves to crash. "The eagle shrieks, pale-beaked he tears the corpse," and the ship Naglfar breaks free thanks to the waves made by Jormungandr and sets sail from the east. The fire jötnar inhabitants of Muspelheim come forth.
Odin dies by the Finrir or Finris Wolf.
The Midgard Serpent attacks Earth/Midgard and brings with it world wide floods thus wiping out everything on Earth but two who start things over again.
Surtur and his fire demons descend on Asgard.
Everything goes to hell in a hat basket. Now, I'm not going to rehash everything that's been touched on before. My concern isn't the villains of THOR 3. Although, it seems fairly probable that Surtur, the Midgard Serpent, the Finris wolf and the end of times is the best odds. No, my question is what of Thor. How will the third movie leave him? What could possibly take Thor out of the action on Midgard and away from the Avengers?
Maybe Thor is Whedon's target.
This scenario is one of those that is bound to end badly. There will be blood and death by the end of this. Odin HAS to return. He is destined to fall to the Fenris Wolf. There will be no time for punishing Loki for, once again, they will need him to stand against the forces of Surtur. So, for once, THOR, ODIN and LOKI stand side by side in battle. One or all could fall.
One reason Thor could not return to Midgard and the Avengers is because he dies. But the problem is after this movie, there is one more fight. Thor has to be there to fight Thanos in Avengers 3. So this seems doubtful. Death may come, but not in the battle with Surtur. Still doesn't mean Whedon won't off him in the final battle. But I have to say this is not the way.
Possibility of death in either THOR 3 or Avengers 3? Even odds-50%
2) One Thor to rule us all
The other way Thor begins to be drawn away from his beloved Midgard is that he is left the heir of Asgard.
This final battle is destined to kill Odin and that will leave Thor the final heir to the throne. Where we saw Loki steal the throne in DARK WORLD, we could definitely see Thor ascend the throne legitimately in the third movie. This would force him to spend more time on Asgard.
It would also be a fitting end to the trilogy.
First act: the fallen son who after much pain begins to find redemption.
Second act: the fallen son becomes the hero his Father knew he could be but is tricked by his brother who steals the throne.
Third act: the fallen son is now the valiant hero who loses his father and becomes king.
It all makes sense.
Possibility of Thor ascending the throne of Asgard: 75-90+%
3) none of the above
There's always a chance that Thor will not only survive Ragnarok, but will save his father and the throne. He will be there to fight Thanos and survive for further adventures. That poses a whole new question: Is there life after Hemsworth?
Possibility of status quo? 25%....maybe less.
How ever it happens, I'm convinced that Thor won't be involved in the Avengers after the war with Thanos is over. He will either be elsewhere, on the throne of ASGARD or will be dead.
Either way, I don't believe he factors into the Phase Four Avengers.