OK. Here is the meaning of truth! Kingsman: The Secret Service is a movie that Twentieth Century Fox moved around on their release schedule. The film was originally supposed to come out in August 2014 and then moved to March 2015, and moved again to October 2014, and finally February 2015. With the twists and turns from the film's release, how will it do against another movie that was pushed to a later release date with Fifty Shades of Grey? The new erotic drama was originally supposed to be released on August 1, 2014 against Guardians of the Galaxy until Universal smartly moved it to February 13, 2015 (Valentine's Day Weekend) instead.
It seems that Kingsman: The Secret Service has no chance at beating Fifty Shades of Grey this weekend, despite catering to the geek audience. Fifty Shades of Grey caters to an under-serviced female audience who will show up to theaters across the country to watch the new movie, while Kingsman: The Secret Service seem like it will have legs going forward with good word-of-mouth and movie reviews. In other words, Fifty Shades of Grey is really frontloaded and considering its moderate to poor quality, it doesn't seem like audiences would be willing to check out next weekend or on repeat viewings. It's saucy, but not that saucy to build a controversy or immediacy.
Fifty Shades of Grey is projected to gross as much as $92 million over the Valentine's Day weekend and as much as $101 million over the extended four-day President's Day weekend too. Now that's some serious cheddar! By comparison, Kingsman: The Secret Service is estimated to take in as much as $40 million over the weekend, but likely will hit the low-30s instead. You can look at Fifty Shades of Grey dropping by at least 55%, as it's likely that it would only take in $50 million or lower next weekend.
Considering that Fifty Shades of Grey's production budget was only about $40 million, I think you can see why the new movie might be a smash hit, which is why Universal already greenlit the next two movies in the trilogy -- Fifty Shades Darker and Fifty Shades Freed. Meanwhile, Kingsman: The Secret Service's production budget stands at an estimated $81 million, as it's hard to see if the new movie from director Matthew Vaughn will be a profitable one for Twentieth Century Fox. It seems that Kingsman: The Secret Service might be a bigger hit internationally, but sex sells everywhere.
Critically, Kingsman: The Secret Service is doing much better than Fifty Shades of Grey, as it's currently standing at 69% "Fresh" on Rotten Tomatoes, while the latter is at a 30% "Rotten" rating. But sadly, quality doesn't equal box office success. Here are my top 3 box office predictions:
1. Fifty Shades of Grey - $87 million ($100 million four-day)
2. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water - $30 million
3. Kingsman: The Secret Service - $32 million ($35.5 million four-day)