UPDATE 1: Some changes are made on July 4th 2015, based on new information and calculations, the changes are marked with a * symbol.
UPDATE 2: Gambit is taken off the list as it will be postponed to 2017 and some minor changes were made on December 23rd based on new information, these changes are marked with a ** symbol.
Comic book movies have become a genre of itself and they are hugely popular and very profitable. In this article I am going to analyze and speculate the box office performance of the comic book based superhero movies for the year of 2016, so first, let's look at the list of movies:
- [Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice](tag:711870)
- Captain America: Civil War
- X-Men: Apocalypse
- Suicide Squad
- Doctor Strange
Six comic book movies in a year? That's literally amazing, now let's jump into the speculation game, starting with...
Deadpool - February 6th, 2016
This movie is going to go down in the history as the first R rated comic book movie set inside a shared universe and I have to say Deadpool has a huge fan following and the anticipation sky rocketed once the movie was revealed to be a R rated movie which will be extremely faithful to the source material. The SDCC trailer further boosted the anticipation now. Also the marketing campaigns for this movie is pure GENIUS.
When we take a look at the competition, this movie has a full week at the box office only to be disturbed by Gods of Egypt and Triple 9 by the 2nd week and by London Has Fallen by the 3rd week.
Also it's a given that the international markets would be releasing valentines days special movies in their respective countries and thus the adult movie going audiences will be split in two and this will be affecting the box office performance of Deadpool overseas but not considerably, nonetheless the lifetime collection of this movie would be 380 - 420 Million Dollars**
Now remember that this is a R rated movie and this movie might have a budget of 70-80 million dollars and thus I have to say that 350-400 million dollars collection is extremely profitable for 20th century fox.
Batman v Superman Dawn of Justice - March 25th 2016
This is easily the most anticipated movie of 2016 with an unbelievable level of hype, because this is the first time in the history of movies where Superman and Batman will be sharing the big screen together and this movie will be acting as the launchpad for the entire DC Extended Universe and thus many has dubbed that this movie is an historic event in movie sphere. Also Wonder Woman makes her first live action appearance in this movie, creating an insane level of hype among female movie going market.
Even this movie is pretty unopposed at the box office for the first 3 weeks (21 days) and that's a massive advantage and this streak is broken by Disney's Jungle Book by 3rd week, thus Batman v Superman and Jungle Book will playing side by side in the global box office for an additional 3 weeks until Captain America Civil War opens during May 6, 2016.
By taking all this into consideration I believe this movie can reach 1.3 - 1.5 Billion Dollars* of life time collection at the box office, and a great deal of it's success has to be attributed to it's late march release a tried and extremely tested release window, for example Furious 7.
Well this will be a success of epic proportions to Warner Brothers and DC Entertainment as this will only be the second movie in their shared universe franchise and that would tremendously increase the success of following movies in DC Cinematic Universe.
Captain America Civil War - May 6th 2016
This is another movie which is anticipated heavily, especially because the story line of Civil War is extremely popular with the fans and everybody wants to see the epic fight between marvel heroes, especially Captain America vs Iron Man. And it's really easy to guess that this movie would have a tremendous impact on Marvel Cinematic universe and thus this will be an extremely important movie for the fans of Marvel Cinematic Universe and pretty attractive for the general movie going audience as well.
This movie is has a free reign of 3 weeks (21 days) after which X-Men Apocalypse and Alice Through The Looking Glass shows up on the 3rd week but it doesn't end there because Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 shows up on the 4th week, WarCraft and Now You See Me 2 shows up on 5th week, Finding Dory shows up 6th week and Independence Day Resurgence shows up on 7th week.
Some of those movies had billion dollar prequels and others are anticipated fan favorites and this is a major problem for Captain America Civil War because this movie has billion dollar potential and could turn out to be the next Iron Man 3 (in terms of solo movie commercial success) but the sheer amount of competition will certainly leave a dent on Civil War's box office performance, even the international markets will be pretty packed with their movies during summer season. But this movie features the entire Marvel Cinematic Universe except Thor and Hulk but includes a new version of MCU Spider Man and Black Panther, so the ensemble is one of the biggest benefit of this movie and thus that will help this movie in a bigger way.
By taking all of these into consideration I believe this movie might end up with a life time collection of 1.0 - 1.2 Billion Dollars** at the box office, which is highly profitable for Disney and Marvel because I think this movie might have a budget of 200 million dollars and would become 3rd most profitable film in Marvel Cinematic Universe after the two part Avengers movies.
X-Men Apocalypse - May 27th 2016
The prequel of this movie X-Men Days of Future Past was wildly successful and it was labelled as one of the best comic book movie, and I can easily see the expectations and anticipation carried forward to this movie.
This movie is quite troubled from a box office POV because Alice through the Looking Glass will be released on the same day and after that, other summer blockbusters like Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 shows up on 2nd week, WarCraft and Now You See Me 2 shows up on 3rd week, Finding Dory on the 4th, Independence Day Resurgence on the 5th and Legend of Tarzan and The BFG on 6th.
But 20th Century Fox made a clever move by testing it's prequel, X-men Days of Future Past during October 2013 (a relatively free box office period) and now that it has been looked up to as a big success, this movie (Apocalypse) is pretty secure.
By taking all these into consideration, I would speculate that this movie will end up with a life time collection of 790 - 810 Million Dollars** at the box office, but make no mistake even this figure is pretty huge and very profitable for the makers and will end up as a bigger success than it's prequel.
Suicide Squad - August 5th 2016
This movie was referred as the riskiest bet of DC extended universe given the obscure nature of the property and characters but this movie immediately become one of the hotly anticipated movie once the movie details like official first look, story rumors and scoops, constant set pictures and videos came to the light. But the SDCC trailer was tremendous in terms of marketing reach as the trailer now stands at 59 million views which is 1 million more than Batman v Superman's SDCC trailer!
This movie will have 1 week (7 days) of unopposed reign at the box office until Disney's Pete's Dragon and Ben Hur arrives but after the release of Pete's Dragon and Ben Hur there is literally no competition for the next 12 whole weeks! So just like [Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice](tag:711870) even this movie will be running side by side with another movie at the box office for a pretty long time.
So given the completel lack of competition, unique nature of this film (this will be the first film where villains fight other villains to save the day) and the extremely diverse cast, I believe this movie will end up with a life time collection of 780 - 820 Million Dollars* at the box office.
Great deal of this movie's success can be attributed to the speculated success of it's prequel Batman v Superman Dawn of Justice, as the expectations and anticipation will be carried forward to this movie from that movie. Thus another huge victory for WB and DC Entertainment and the sole reason to this success is the carefully picked release windows.
Doctor Strange - November 4th 2016
This is going to mark the end of comic book movies for the year 2016 but the start of something new in Marvel Cinematic Universe as Marvel Studios wants to introduce the whole magical super natural element into their shared universe and they have got a pretty experienced director to pull it off.
This movie will have 14 days (2 weeks) of unopposed rule at box office office after which WB's anticipated Harry Potter spin off franchise Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them hits the theater, a movie which will be more or less same in terms of tone and theme, which might become a trouble for this movie.
And this movie failed to generate a considerable level of anticipation as well and it was pretty evident from Marvel's Phase 3 reveal event, and that might be another problem to tackle for Marvel and Disney and it can be easily tackled as well.
So with taking all these into consideration I believe this movie might end with a life time collection of 670 - 700 Million Dollars at the box office, which is a pretty successful figure.
wrapping it up
Guys the year 2016 looks like a dream come true for comic book fans world wide and it is looking pretty successful for the respective filmmakers as well.
But please do remember that this is just an educated speculation from my side based on every single fact available and the actual results might vary based on the changes that happens in the future and the world wide consumer trends which is extremely unpredictable.
With that said here are the numbers of the box office collections of the respective movies.
- Deadpool - 380 - 420 Million Dollars
- Batman v Superman Dawn of Justice - 1.3 - 1.5 Billion Dollars
- Captain America Civil War - 1.0 - 1.2 Billion Dollars
- X-Men Apocalypse - 790 - 810 Million Dollars
- Suicide Squad - 780 - 820 Million Dollars.
- Doctor Strange - 670 - 700 Million Dollars.
No mater what happens, I believe this is a cause of celebration for every comic book fan regardless of which comic book movie franchise they like (WB, Disney or 20th Century Fox) and please do tell me what you feel about this speculation in the comments below.