This weekend, business should not be as high as last weekend, but it should come close thanks to the nationwide expanse of The Revenant. Even the films outside of the list below will help business continue to be strong. Let me know if you agree or disagree with any of the predictions and what you predict will happen.
1. Star Wars 7:
Star Wars Episode 7 has been force choking records of all kinds and it is likely to keep doing so this weekend. Yesterday, it passed Avatar to become the highest grossing film of all time domestically and has made it to $764.4 million in 20 days. It is likely to claim the highest 4th weekend gross of all time ahead of Avatar's $50.3 million. Its second weekend and third weekend declines were both 40%, and its last weekend found it earning $90.2 million. Since it has dropped below $100 million last weekend, I predict it will have a smaller decline, at least for this weekend. It will continue to do its thing and steal eyeballs while the rest of the business puts up decent numbers a good distance behind it. I predict it will end up in the mid to high $60 millions for the weekend, giving it the 4th weekend record.
2. The Revenant:
The Revenant has been anticipated by many for a few months now. It follows the story of a frontiersman that has to survive in the wilderness after getting attacked by a bear and being left for dead by his hunting team. This is based on true events. From what I have heard, this is the film that DiCaprio has worked the hardest to make due to the brutal environmental elements he faces in the film. When he was getting frostbite in the film, he was getting frostbite in real life. It opened in limited release on Christmas weekend and early word of mouth is that this film is very good. As it expands nationwide this weekend, I predict an opening in the mid to high $30 millions.
3. The Hateful Eight:
This weekend was originally when The Hateful Eight was supposed to expand nationwide, but the date was moved forward from January 8th to December 30th at the last minute, so a lot of people did not know it was out last weekend. The $15.7 million Friday-Sunday take is low for a Quentin Tarantino film, but this scheduling decision was likely the reason for it. Still, word of mouth spread quickly and the general consensus is that this film was in fact quite good. It is expanding to more theaters nationwide and people know for sure that it will be out, so a small increase over last weekend is likely, but like last weekend, it should end up in the mid to high $10 millions.
4. Daddy's Home:
Daddy's Home has been performing surprisingly well. It earned $38.7 million on opening weekend and last weekend, it declined 25% and earned $29.2 million. Without much comedic competition this weekend, it should have one more weekend to put up strong numbers before fellow comedy Ride Along 2 makes its debut next weekend. I predict it will end up in the mid to high $10 millions for the weekend.
5. The Forest:
This seems likely to be 5th place. Horror films have been struggling lately. Krampus is winding down with a $42.4 million. This film does not seem to have anything to make it stand out amongst horror films. It will likely open between $5 to $10 million.
Here is the way I predict the box office will play out this weekend. I will put ranking, and if a film is not new or not expanding nationwide by gaining a drastic amount of theaters, there will be a percentage which represents the drop from the previous weekend (or in some cases, increase from the previous weekend).
1. Star Wars 7: $66.5 million (-26%)
2. The Revenant: $38 million
3. The Hateful Eight: $16.3 million (+4%)
4. Daddy's Home: $15.2 million (-48%)
5. The Forest: $7.3 million