Post MLK weekend tends to yield weak sauce openings and even if holdovers are strong, the weekend's overall business tends to be far below that of MLK weekend. This weekend is shaping up to be no exception. This certainly will not be the worst post MLK weekend in recent memory, but it will not be as strong as last weekend. With that, here come my predictions for top 5 for post MLK weekend 2016. I welcome your input as well.
1. The Revenant
The Revenant spent two weekends in a row at 2nd place, but it looks like it will be in the top spot this time. The awards buzz surrounding it is strong and word of mouth is also strong. Another small decline is in order here. It should be in the mid to high $20 millions.
2. The 5th Wave
This should have 2nd place for the weekend. Its marketing made it look more like a disaster movie than a young adult adventure which was a good move, but January seems like an odd time to schedule something like that. I predict it will open in the low to mid $20 millions.
3. Ride Along 2
Ride Along 2 fell short of its predecessor's $41.5 million opening weekend, but opened to $35.2 million, which was good enough to take the top spot last weekend. Its predecessor fell 48% in its second weekend. It should drop a little lighter than that, but not much. It will likely end up in the mid to high $10 millions for the weekend.
4. Star Wars 7
Star Wars 7's reign at the top spot ended last weekend thanks to Ride Along 2's debut and a fantastic hold for The Revenant. Now that it is winding down, it looks like this could be the last time it is in the top 5. It will likely end up in the low to mid $10 millions.
5. Dirty Grandpa
You might think from the title alone that it is a sequel to Bad Grandpa from 2013, but it is not. The premise finds an uptight lawyer Jason (Zac Efron) getting tricked by his grandpa Dick (Robert De Niro) into driving him to Daytona, Florida for a wild Spring Break of epic debauchery and they become closer on their trip. The premise seems good, but the nail in the coffin for this film is the fact that it has to compete with Ride Along 2 which opened last weekend. It will likely open in the low to mid $10 millions.
Outside the Top 5:
I only add the "Outside the Top 5" section if I believe a film will open nationwide outside the top 5. Only one film looks like it will do that this weekend and that is The Boy. It seems like an intriguing premise but kind of gives off a Woman in Black vibe, and that vibe has been time tested since. This film, whether the general consensus is good, bad, or in between, will be lucky to open above $5 million.
With that, here are my official predictions for the weekend. If there is a percentage in parentheses, it represents the drop from last weekend (the traditional 3 day Friday-Sunday frame, not the 4 day Friday-Monday frame that included MLK Day itself). If there is no percentage in parentheses, it means a film is opening nationwide this weekend.
1. The Revenant: $25.9 million (-19%)
2. The 5th Wave: $21.2 million
3. Ride Along 2: $19.3 million (-45%)
4. Star Wars 7: $13.9 million (-47%)
5. Dirty Grandpa: $10.2 million
The Boy: $3.2 million