Welcome back my friends. Last weekend's domestic box office took a big hit last weekend due to the snowstorm in part of the country. The holdovers from last weekend should make up some ground this weekend though and this weekend is likely to be an improvement over last weekend. So, here are my predictions for the final weekend of January.
1. Kung Fu Panda 3
The third installment in the Kung Fu Panda series is likely to take the top spot. Early word of mouth suggests that it is as good as the first two, but that may change for the better or worse as more people have access to it starting tomorrow. Dreamworks Animation has not released anything since Home 10 months ago. With Dreamworks Animation struggling lately, many company members had to be laid off, resulting in only one film per year as of last year instead of two or three. Kung Fu Panda 3 had been delayed twice and it is finally here. Spoiler alert for those who have not seen the trailers yet. Po's biological father reunites with him and he is sent to train a village of pandas to become fighters. There is likely to be some sad moments in the film, just like in the second one and that emotional side of animated films is what makes them worth seeing for many people. However, it is likely to open a little lower than the second one $47.7 million due to weird scheduling. It is odd to have any Dreamworks film open in January, let alone one of their sequels. I predict it will open somewhere in the low to mid $40 millions.
2. The Finest Hours
The Finest Hours looks as though it has potential for strong business. For the most part, films based on true stories are if they are marketed well enough. This one seemed to have been marketed well and was delayed. It is likely to have an opening in the mid to high $10 millions.
3. The Revenant
The Revenant took the top spot last weekend but tumbled 50%. The snowstorm is the likely cause of that, because with no legitimate competition, it really should have held up much better than that under normal circumstances. It ought to make up for that with a very small drop this weekend. It will likely end up in the low to mid $10 millions for the weekend.
4. Star Wars 7
Now that it is winding down but the talk surrounding it is still high, it is likely to drop by a little less than it has been lately. It should still end up in the low to mid $10 millions like last weekend.
5. Fifty Shades of Black
This is a spoof of Fifty Shades of Grey. Spoofs have a fairly low ceiling and this has not been marketed very well, so an opening in the low to mid $10 millions is likely here.
Overall, the box office should be stronger than it was last weekend, but aside from Kung Fu Panda 3, nothing else looks to really break out. Here are my official predictions for how the top 5 for the weekend will play out. Note that the percentages in parentheses indicate a drop (or sometimes increase) from the previous weekend. If there are no parentheses, it means it is just opening this weekend. Feel free to comment below as to your thoughts.
1. Kung Fu Panda 3: $43.2 million
2. The Finest Hours: $17.7 million
3. The Revenant: $14.9 million (-7%)
4. Star Wars 7: $12.1 million (-14%)
5. Fifty Shades of Black: $10.2 million