ByMicah Thompson, writer at

So, Marvel has made a tradition of killing off semi-important characters in their new batch of movies. Phil Coulson died (mostly) in Avengers, Quicksilver (spoiler alert, I guess) died in Age of Ultron, and now that [Captain America: Civil War](tag:994409) is right around the corner it’s time to pull out our black suits, put on our sad faces and get our sad words of wisdom ready.

But Captain America: Civil War feels different. Feels bigger, for some reason. So, for whom does the bell toll?? Whose name is engraved on this particular tombstone? Let’s break it down character by character in what is probably the single least sensitive way imaginable: percentages.

Okay, so let’s start from the least likely and work our way up to the most shall we? Starting with:

Black Panther: 0.00001 percent chance.

Yeah, he ain’t dying. It’s his first movie, he’s got his own solo movie coming up in a bit. He’ll be fine. No worries Mrs. Panther, your son will be home for dinner.

The benefit of being the new guy.
The benefit of being the new guy.

Ant-man: 0.00001 percent chance.

Ant-man 2. Plus, you can’t kill Paul Rudd! Everybody loves Paul Rudd!

Paul Rudd: The Dorky older brother, you never had.
Paul Rudd: The Dorky older brother, you never had.

Black Widow and Hawkeye: 1 Percent Chance

They’ll be fine. Killing one of these guys would just be mean. It would be like a ninja assassin dropping from the ceiling and killing me. I mean that would be ridicuajskhda;—

Seriously though, you can’t have Captain America kill Black Widow, it would just be uncalled for and bully-ish. Plus we learned in Age of Ultron that even when every indication points to Hawkeye dying: he’ll be fine.

The Vision and Scarlet Witch: 1 Percent Chance

These two will obviously be pitted against each other as they are the only two with even a slight chance of canceling the other one out. The Vision obviously has a part to play in the Infinity Wars given that his (for lack of a better term) magical tiara is made from an infinity gem, and Scarlet Witch is (sadly) the one powered female hero in this world thus far, so they can’t kill her. Plus, it would have to be the Vision who did it and that doesn’t seem his style. Also plus, in the comics they get married and while I have a lot of questions as to the Visions Ken doll like man area, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was some weird sexual tension here.

So how do you two... ya know... Also: driving????
So how do you two... ya know... Also: driving????

Falcon: 10 Percent Chance

Some Black Widow/Hawkeye logic here, I mean killing the guy who just sort of flies around rescuing kittens and naming birds after himself just seems unnecessary when your Iron Man doesn’t it? Plus, he’s too much of a moral compass to be just callously killed, he’ll be around.

The Winter Soldier: 15 Percent Chance

Putting aside the fact that Marvel basically owns Sebastian Stans soul, killing the Winter Soldier right as he turns himself into a good guy wouldn’t make a whole lot of narrative sense. I mean sure, Captain America would be upset but as far as the rest of the Universe would be concerned he was just some dude they barely knew he killed a lot of people. A lot more needs to happen to this guy, so I think he’ll be left standing when all is said and done.

Iron Patriot: 60 Percent Chance

Okay, now we get into the stuff that’s actually probably gonna happen. We know from the trailers that something definitely happens to Rhodey and we’ve already proven that he’s not that major of a character (we did, after all, switch actors and no one really seemed to care.) The reason he’s not listed higher percentage-wise is that I think it’s kind of un-Marvel to show a death like this in a trailer. We know something happens to him to be sure, but maybe he’s not dead. If this was a Zach Snyder movie I’d say sure (sorry, that was too easy) but Marvel generally doesn’t reveal major things this early.

So there’s that, but honestly I also feel like he isn’t the sort of death the Marvel Universe really needs right now. We’ve lost minor characters already, but this movie seems to be building to something bigger, something that will really shake things up as we head into Infinity Wars. If Iron Patriot does die (which I do think is still more likely than not to happen) I would fully expect someone else to die as well. I think Marvel is going for something big here, and Iron Patriot just doesn’t have enough weight to really change anything.

"Ok see, this is why we can't have nice things."
"Ok see, this is why we can't have nice things."

That (obviously) leaves us with the big 2. The main players in this little dance we’re doing. Starting with…

Iron Man: 75 Percent

Let the record show that I think this is the more interesting (though not the more likely) thing to happen, and it’s also pretty much definitely one or the other with these last two. Iron Man could definitely go down here, though. Downey Jr. is near the end of his contract, and having Cap have to deal with the guilt of killing Iron Man could put him in a place of putting down the Shield (to be picked up by Winter Soldier.) That clears the table for an Infinity Wars movie where we have to find Steve Rogers and resurrect Iron Man (either with the Infinity Gems or Dr. Strange.) Having an Iron Man dealing with a return from the dead would definitely be interesting and the fight leading up to his death would be epic! Certainly an interesting (and less expected) narrative direction for the Marvel Universe.

He's either real dead, or just real high...
He's either real dead, or just real high...

Captain America: 80 Percent

This is still more likely though. Cap sacrifices himself for something (saving Iron Man maybe???) Thus ending the conflict, sending Iron Man on some sort of self realizing journey, and clearing the way for Winter Soldier to take up the Shield. It also sets up an Infinity Wars that can focus on the ever reliable/awesome Robert Downey Jr. putting together a new team and trying to save the world all over again. Then we get a similar resurrection plot line with Tony Stark leading the charge to bring back the ultimate soldier to lead the team. It makes sense, gives some lesser known heroes a chance to carry things for a bit, but also centers things on the most widely bankable hero (Iron Man.)

Expect to see this exact shot if this happens.
Expect to see this exact shot if this happens.

So there you go guys, I’m really excited for Civil War and I hope (and think) Marvel is smart enough to see the chance they’ve got to break the status quo a bit and take the world in a different direction, as we gear up for Infinity Wars. Regardless of what happens, looks like it’ll be a fun ride!!

Any theories of your own as to who’s going out in Civil War? Feel free to comment below!!

Oh and just so it’s been posted:

Spiderman: Negative 5 million percent chance.

Not only are we not sure he’s anything more than a cameo in this movie, but he’s got his whole Sony movie series to work towards. He literally has nothing to worry about.


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