Last weekend was really big, but only because Deadpool carried it big time. In the last few years, the box office Post Presidents Day Weekend declines substantially from Presidents Day Weekend and it looks to come crashing down again this weekend with an anemic lineup of 3 newcomers. Although, it should be at least on par with box office of this time frame last year if not just a little better. So, here are my predictions for the weekend:
Deadpool slashed some records last weekend when most people did not expect it to. It opened to an incredible $132.4 million, which was 55% higher than that of the previous February opening weekend record set by Fifty Shades of Grey with $85.2 million last year. It also took the all time R rated opening weekend record away from 2003's The Matrix Reloaded ($91.8 million). If it holds up well enough, it might take the all time R rated domestic cumulative total record away from 2004's Passion of the Christ ($370.8 million). Fifty Shades of Grey took a very steep 74% second weekend tumble. With Deadpool, that is not likely to happen, but its big opening suggests its drop will still be sizable. It should end up in the low to mid $60 millions for the weekend, taking the top spot again by a very large margin.
2. Kung Fu Panda 3
What is shocking is that it only declined 7% last weekend. It is likely to decline a lot more than that this weekend, but the drop should still be fairly light as it has a couple more weeks to draw in some more family crowds before Zootopia closes in on March 4th. It should be in the low to mid $10 millions and is likely to be the only other film besides Deadpool to earn over $10 million this weekend.
It appears in the eyes of many to be another copycat religion film promising nothing new. It is likely to earn between $5 and 10 million.
4. How to Be Single
This film did decent business last weekend, but it seemed like most of its crowd was interesting in seeing it for Valentines Day. Weak reviews will not help it hold on well either. It should earn between $5 and 10 million this weekend.
5. Zoolander 2
This was a poorly reviewed sequel, but it is not likely to drop too hard, because it opened unexpectedly low and unlike How to Be Single, it did not seem to be a Valentines Day related event. It will probably earn between $5 and 10 million for the weekend.
Outside the Top 5:
If a newcomer looks like it will open outside the top 5, this section will appear.
This is supposed to be a sports biopic about Jesse Owens and his journey to the Berlin Olympics in 1936. There has been little marketing effort for it, so it should open between $5 and $10 million this weekend.
While positively reviewed so far, it has no noticeable star power and has been advertised little. It would be shocking if it opened above $5 million.
Now here are my official predictions for the weekend. If there are percentages in parentheses, it represents a decline (or sometimes an increase) from the previous weekend. If there are no percentages in parentheses, it is opening nationwide this weekend.
1. Deadpool: $60.4 million (-54%)
2. Kung Fu Panda 3: $13.1 million (-34%)
3. Risen: $8.1 million
4. How to Be Single: $8 million (-55%)
5. Zoolander 2: $7.5 million (-46%)
Outside the Top 5:
Race: $7.3 million
The Witch: $4 million