Oscars Weekend is a historically slow one at the box office, mainly because a serious attendance chunk is taken out of Sunday's figures due to the Oscars award ceremony. This is likely a bigger cause for attendance loss than the Super Bowl since it is directly film related. There are three new releases, but none of them look to open too high. Here is how I predict the weekend box office will go down.
Deadpool should be enjoying its last weekend in the top spot. It is still riding a wave of good buzz which should allow it to fend off the newcomers. It should earn somewhere in the mid to high $20 millions for the weekend.
2. Gods of Egypt
Gods of Egypt looks like it will be the top opener for the newcomers, because it has been advertised aggressively. Unfortunately, it looks utterly ridiculous in every sense of the word. When I watched the trailer for this in the theater, I literally had to stuff my fist in my mouth to keep from laughing too hard at how horrible the CGI looked. Even if this film gets bad reception (early word of mouth is suggesting it will) and performs badly in the US, it is likely to at least save some face in foreign markets. This film should open in the low to mid $20 millions this weekend.
3. Eddie the Eagle
Eddie the Eagle has not been marketed that strongly, but those who know this film is coming out seem excited. People do like an underdog story it seems, so it may not open very high this weekend, but it could hold on very well. It should open in the low to mid $10 millions this weekend.
4. Kung Fu Panda 3
This looks like it will be 4th place. It should be the last time it appears in the top 5. It has one more week to itself before Zootopia steals its thunder. It should earn between $5 and $10 million this weekend.
5. Triple 9
Russian Mafia story Triple 9 should be an interesting choice for action fans, but very few have heard of it by now. Those who do may have spread the word far enough to give this a not terrible opening. It should open between $5 and $10 million.
Now, here are my official predictions for Oscars Weekend 2016. If there is a percentage in parentheses, that represents a decline from the previous weekend. If there are no percentages in parentheses, the film is opening nationwide.
1. Deadpool: $28.4 million (-50%)
2. Gods of Egypt: $20.2 million
3. Eddie the Eagle: $12.3 million
4. Kung Fu Panda 3: $8.2 million (-34%)
5. Triple 9: $7.5 million