Spring Kickoff Weekend is here. The Spring movie season goes from the beginning of March to the end of April. It is pretty short. This should be one of the biggest Spring Kickoff Weekends thanks to three new nationwide releases that look like they will do strong business. So, here is how I predict the weekend will go down.
This should definitely be in the top spot. It is a Disney film done by the same people that did Frozen and Big Hero 6. That connection was evident in the advertisements and it should pay off. It does open at a different time than those films, though. They both opened in the holiday season. The Lorax kicked off the Spring 2012 season with $70.2 million. It is not likely to have a Lorax level opening, but it should open about in line with Big Hero 6 which would give it an opening in the mid to high $50 millions this weekend.
2. London Has Fallen
London Has Fallen is the sequel to Olympus Has Fallen which surprised in 2013 by opening to $30.4 million on its way to a $98.9 million total. That film, though, had positive word of mouth. This one does not have encouraging early signs, which will not help it open higher. It ought to open in the mid to high $10 millions this weekend.
After three weekends in a row atop the box office, Deadpool is likely to not drop too far as people are still enjoying it right now. It should be in a close battle with London Has Fallen for second place in the mid to high $10 millions.
4. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
The comedy/war film mix seems like a bizarre move, but with decent early word of mouth, it should have a decent opening in the mid to high $10 millions, doing close battle with London Has Fallen and Deadpool for second place.
5. Gods of Egypt
This film opened to a poor $14.1 million last weekend which was below even the worst of expectations. It was less than half of the openings of big budget bombs Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time and John Carter ($30.1 million and $30.2 million, respectively). To make matters worse, it had god awful reviews. In a distant fifth place, it will likely earn a little over $5 million and drop off even quicker from there.
Here are my official predictions for the weekend. Note: If there are percentages in parentheses, it represents a decline from the previous weekend. If there are no percentages in parentheses, the film is opening nationwide this weekend.
1. Zootopia: $55.3 million
2. London Has Fallen: $19.6 million
3. Deadpool: $19.5 million (-37%)
4. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot: $17.1 million
5. Gods of Egypt: $5.6 million (-60%)