Hey everybody. I normally do not post the weekend predictions this early in the week, but Miracles from Heaven is opening nationwide tomorrow, so I wanted to predict what would happen before its opening day. Anyways, the weekend should be a pretty busy one at the box office. With 4/5 of my top 5 predictions looking to earn over $10 million, business should be up from last weekend. Here are my predictions for how this weekend will play out.
The third film in the Divergent series is here. The first one opened to $54.6 million with mixed reception at this time in 2014. Insurgent came exactly a year later and opened a little lower with $52.3 million and reception was a bit worse. Now, Allegiant is here and early reception is even worse still. So, I expect the downward trend to continue. It should open in the low to mid $40 millions for the weekend.
Zootopia has really been cleaning up at the box office and it still looks on track to bring in more big numbers this weekend as it is the only thing in the way of family entertainment. It should end up in the mid to high $30 millions. If Allegiant does worse than I predicted (or Zootopia does better), Zootopia might actually have a shot at winning the weekend.
3. Miracles from Heaven
Religious films have had a tough go so far this year, but Miracles from Heaven looks to turn all that around. It tells an inspiring story of a girl with a disorder leaving her unable to digest food. She talks about a visit to heaven after surviving a headlong tumble into a tree. The story is inspiring and the film has received positive word of mouth so far which should help. Unfortunately, it is opening on a Wednesday which makes it harder to predict than normal. The title alone sounds more intriguing to the casual moviegoer that may be unfamiliar with the source material than Risen or The Young Messiah, so that should help, even if the film has not been marketed too aggressively. I predict it will open in the mid to high $10 millions from Friday to Sunday, and earn a little over $20 million from Wednesday to Sunday.
4. 10 Cloverfield Lane
This should be in fourth place. Last weekend, it had a slightly disappointing opening of $24.7 million, but as it is well reviewed, it should not fall too hard. It should end up in the low to mid $10 millions this weekend.
It should be the last weekend it ends up in the top 5. However, it is likely to have a light decline and have one more good weekend before it crumbles in the wake of Batman Vs. Superman next weekend. It should earn from $5 to $10 million this weekend.
Here are my official predictions for the weekend. Note: If there are percentages in parentheses, it represents a decline from the previous weekend. If there are no percentages in parentheses, that means the film is opening nationwide this weekend. Also, note that Miracles from heaven is coming out tomorrow, so I am also forecasting the 5 day Wednesday-Sunday frame in addition to the traditional 3 day Friday-Sunday frame.
1. Allegiant: $44.3 million
2. Zootopia: $37.8 million (-26%)
3. Miracles from Heaven: $17 million ($21.9 million 5-day)
4. 10 Cloverfield Lane: $14.4 million (-41%)
5. Deadpool: $8.1 million (-26%)