ByCharlie Ridgely, writer at
Writer, Creator, All-Around Film Nerd
Charlie Ridgely

The Walking Dead fans rejoice — the age of Negan is finally upon us! Sunday's Season 6 finale of AMC's acclaimed zombie drama has become one of the show's most highly anticipated episodes, especially following the announcement that the sinister baddie Negan — played by Jeffery Dean Morgan — will finally be meeting Rick and the survivors on screen.

For those of you who watch the show but haven't read the comics, let me fill you in: There is no evil worse than Negan. When he first appears in Issue 100, toting his beloved wire-wrapped bat named Lucille, Negan quickly earns his hatred by killing off one of the series' most beloved characters in an unspeakable show of brutality. Let me be clear here, Negan will make The Governor look like a toddler. This man is the ultimate villain. Knowing he is coming, all fans are expecting a character to meet their fate this Sunday. There are many theories about who it will be, but almost every fan is certain it will be someone.

I'm going to take a look at these theories while examining the probability that each character will meet their fate at the hands of Negan this Sunday night.

Warning: Spoilers for both the series and the comic books to follow. You have been warned.

Rick: <5%

Let's just get this one out of the way right now. There is almost zero chance that Rick dies this week. From Issue 100 to present, Rick and Negan are a huge part of each other's story. It's almost hard to have one without the other. Killing Rick at this point in the story just wouldn't make any sense, but hey, you never actually know.

Glen: 85%

Now that we've talked about the least likely candidate, let's discuss the most likely. It's no secret to lovers of The Walking Dead comics that Glenn's days have been numbered. Not only has he escaped certain death numerous times, but it was in fact Glenn who was murdered by Negan in Issue 100. While trying to choose who to kill at random from a lineup of all fan favorites, Negan famously makes his decision by proclaiming, "Fuck it," and teeing off on Glenn's face. Poor guy never even had a chance to defend himself. While this is the most likely scenario, the showrunners have made changes to comic canon in the past, so it's logical they could do the same here. While his death isn't completely certain, it looks like the lovable daddy-to-be won't be around come Season 7.

Carl Or Michonne: 15%

I don't think it makes much sense to kill off either one of these major characters at this point. Both still have a lot of growing to do, and both have love interests that audiences have really invested in. While Carl can be seen as somewhat expendable, Michonne might be the only character, besides Rick, that the show couldn't live without. The only reasoning behind this thought is that the death of either one of these characters would drive Rick back into madness. The downside? It might drive the fans away from the show.

Maggie: 65%

This one stings to hear, I know. It definitely stung to write, but I can't shy away from the truth. Negan is a sick and twisted man; so much so that multiple actors, including Lauren Cohan, said they found it difficult to even come into work the day after the table read. Hearing that, we at least know something truly terrible happens. What could be more terrible that murdering a beloved character as well as her unborn child? As much as I don't want to think about it, this scenario seems disturbingly likely.

Judith: 10%

Like I said, the actors were somewhat traumatized by this finale. Could that mean the showrunners decided to go darker than they ever had and take out the one precious thing left in Rick's world? I highly doubt it. I would be concerned that even the most hardcore of fans would think that's too much. Let's leave this fan theory as very unlikely and move on.

Eugene: 75%

I have this as my second-most likely scenario, and for obvious reasons. Over the last couple of episodes it has seemed that Eugene's character has come full circle. He was vital when he first appeared, we then realized the coward he really was, and he has since found his sea legs and started to pull his own weight. This seems as likely a time as any to write him off. It's no secret that this writing tactic has been used on the show multiple times, including the Denise incident from a couple of weeks back. The other thing with Eugene is that he doesn't really play a huge role. While he has become a main character over the past few seasons, he no longer serves much of a purpose. This also happens to be the one advantage to saving him from Negan's wrath; it wouldn't really matter that much. Killing off Eugene would sting a bit, but it certainly wouldn't ignite the hate for Negan like we're all expecting.

Abraham, Sasha Or Rosita: 20%

There's nothing really here to make a case either way. Sure, they're characters we care about, but not nearly enough to truly miss them once they're gone. There's no real sense in killing Abraham, and the only reason I could see one of the ladies getting the bat is to send Sarge into a fit of rage. Any of these could happen, but it's pretty unlikely.

Daryl: 60%

Yes, there's a chance Daryl could already be dead, but I don't think anyone actually believes that. Providing he makes it to the finale, he's on thin ice with the Saviors. After multiple run-ins with Dwight, Daryl has easily done enough to piss off the group's leader. Many fans also think that Daryl is the most likely substitute for Glenn if the showrunners decide to spare the voice of reason. I don't want to admit it, but I'm ready to see the onslaught of "If Daryl Dies, We Riot" T-shirts roaming the streets come next week.

Negan Kills No-One: 30%

Let me be clear, I'm by no means saying that no-one dies. With the entrance of a villain such as Negan, I don't believe complete survival is an option. What I am speaking of, however, is a certain fan theory floating around. Due to the enormous emotional trauma the actors mentioned coming with this episode, some have thought the finale to be worse than the comics. The theory goes, rather than Negan killing Glenn, Negan forces Rick to do the deed for him. That's right, there's a possibility that Negan could force Rick to murder Glenn, one of his closest friends, in order to save the rest of the group. Now, while I haven't seen any real evidence to back this up, it certainly seems like a way to rip out the souls of everyone watching, while still keeping them invested in the show.

Multiple Casualties: 70%

I think it's almost certain that multiple characters will die this week. I think those odds stand at almost 100 percent. This is only the probability of Negan killing more than one, which I still find highly likely. It would make a lot of sense to have Negan kill off a smaller character (someone like Eugene, or one of the Alexandria folk) in order to show his power, make us think it's all over, and then turn around and take out a fan favorite, just because he can. Or, in the worst-case scenario, we could see Glenn and Maggie meet their fate together and, while slightly romantic, this is an outcome none of us would like to see.

Cliffhanger: 50%

This is the scenario I personally think we're going to get. I wouldn't put it past The Walking Dead to leave us in agony over who Negan killed, for an entire off-season. I could see them making sure we knew someone died, but keeping it a secret from us until October rolls around. Sounds frustrating, right? While nothing has come out confirming or denying this theory, it's not the first time it's happened. Plus, this would be just another step the show could take in order to keep stride with Sunday's other pastime, Game Of Thrones. Jon Snow, anyone?

I know there are other character's I didn't mention, but I wanted to highlight the most plausible scenarios I saw playing out. While Morgan and Carol are still major characters, it seems as though it'll be awhile before they're back with the group. There's also a chance that something I didn't even mention could happen and take even the most devoted fans by surprise. I guess we'll have to wait until Sunday to find out.


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