SPOILER ALERT: I will be mentioning things that happen in the comic books, while that doesn't mean it will happen in the show, it could... So if you don't want any potential show spoilers, don't read ahead.
If you've been following along, then you know to expect a major death on this week's season 6, hour and a half finale of The Walking Dead. It has been teased to death that we will finally see the arrival of Negan at the end of the episode.
This also means that we should be getting the infamous "line up" scene from the comics. With that scene comes a major death, but who's expected to meet Negan's barb-wired, covered bat, "Lucille?"
In the books, it's Glen that dies at the hands of Lucille, after a rather humorous game of "eenie meanie miney mo."
There's a good possibility that The Walking Dead show runner, Scott M. Gimple, will stay true to the comic and kill off Glen on Sunday, BUT... Glimple hasn't always done things by the letter of the books the show is based on. That being said, let's look at some of the other options Gimple has to kill off...
Who could die in place of Glen and have as much of an impact?
Let's start with a couple of people that are definitely safe:
RICK AND CARL
It is safe to say that both Rick and Carl are completely safe. First and foremost... it's Rick and Carl! They ARE the show.
Season 7 is going to be all about raising an army against Negan, mainly because of the death on Sunday. Who's gonna lead that army? Rick! Of course. Besides, Negan isn't stupid, he knows that if he kills Rick, he's only turning him into a martyr. He doesn't want to kill Rick, he wants to... Ahem... "Break him" to break the will of the people that follow him.
As for Carl, he plays a major role in the whole affair because he's the main thing Rick cares about. (Judith doesn't exist in the books at this point, she died at the prison with Lori.)
Plus Carl lost an eye. While that doesn't necessarily make him "safe," his deformity will be part of a major scene with Negan.
So those two are out...
Also safe is...
No, not because Eugene doesn't really matter, Eugene is safe because he also has a major part to play in season 7.
Remember the whole "making bullets" thing that was introduced last episode? Well, Rick and the gang are about to go to war and that can't happen without bullets. Because of this, Eugene gets to stick around a little bit longer.
Moving on... What about?
It's pretty safe to say that Michonne is going to survive Negan's wrath as well. There's a couple of reasons for this...
First, her new relationship with Rick, sort of puts her in the "safe" category. In the books, Andrea is still alive and she becomes Rick's partner in life and in crime. Together they oversee Alexandria together. It seems as if the show has put Michonne in this position.
The other reason is that Michonne has a part to play when we get to The Kingdom. The Kingdom is a third colony that HATES Negan and the Saviors. Led by Ezekial, it's Michonne that convinces The Kingdom to join forces in the war. (It's rumored that the character that ran off from the barn at the end of the last episode is a member of The Kingdom... So it's coming.)
Granted, part of the reason The Kingdom is convinced is due to her and Ezekial starting a relationship... So if the show decides to go down that road, that might ruin things with Rick and take her out of the "safe" column. Who knows what they'll decide to do, but it's safe to say Michonne won't meet Lucille on Sunday.
There's actually a good argument that it could be Abraham and that's because Denise took his death. In the comics, it's Abraham who takes the arrow to the eye before Negan shows up. This could mean that the writing staff saved him for a bigger role... I mean, death.
But would Abraham's death be big enough to start a war? It's possible. Rick defends his people no matter who it is and Negan's attitude is enough to get under Rick's skin.
The only thing that make this death less likely is the fact that he's just started something with Sasha and that story line hasn't exactly worked itself out yet. Sure, no one's safe, but the show's writers usually tend to play character arcs out until they finish.
Which brings me to...
It's possible, now that Abraham has moved on to Sasha, that Rosita's arc has come to an end. It doesn't look as if they're going to play too much with a love triangle, so there's really no need to keep Rosita around.
Again though, would Rosita's death impact the group the same way Glen's would? If anything, it would rile Abraham up and cause some conflict between him and Sasha...
Hmmmm... that makes the argument a little bit stronger that it could be her.
Sasha, for the most part, has been on the outside of the core group. She hasn't interacted with Rick, Glen, Daryl, Carol, Maggie or Carl much, if at all. That doesn't make her matter less, but it does make her the less obvious choice. Besides, I stand by the new relationship with Abraham thing. I think that arc has a little bit more to go, so until that plays out, Sasha will be sticking around.
Now let's take a look at some of the characters that are a more obvious choice to step in for Glen. Let's start with...
It's getting harder and harder to defend Morgan. His "Zen" approach has led to a lot of chaos and typically, characters eventually have to pay for those mistakes. He's built his cell (which will house a major character later), he's finished up his spat with Carol and he's pretty much gotten on Rick's last fucking nerve.
So why keep Morgan around? Beats me. Anyone?
Maybe the lack of coming up with an excuse is Morgan's best bet at surviving another day. He's hardly a candidate for the group to give up "everything they've built."
His death would probably result in a unanimous "thanks for takin' care of that for us" from the group.
AWWWWW... I know. Poor Morgan. :(
Maggie is a tough choice. There are strong cases for and against her death. Let's take a look at why she would be a good candidate to die instead of Glen.
The biggest reason is that she's basically one off from Glen. The show's genius up to this point, is staying true to the books and when they don't stay true, they change big events by simply... Pivoting a little.
Maggie would be a pivot.
The other reason, which is a little darker, is her pregnancy. Her pregnancy kinda throws her safety into major jeopardy for one easy fact: They've already tackled pregnancy in the apocalypse as a story. It's bad enough that they always have to worry about Judith, can you imagine now trying to juggle two babies?
In the books, Sophia is still alive and Maggie and Glen have been raising her as their own because Carol is long gone. That was fine because Sophia was as old as Carl. She was managable and could wield a weapon. Another baby? That's gonna be tough.
Maggie might survive Negan, but I'm not sure how long her baby will survive beyond that.
That being said, let's look at the reason why it WON'T be Maggie. That one's easy too, Maggie won't die because of The Hilltop. In the books, after Glen's death, Maggie retreats too the Hilltop. Alexandria is just too hard for her to be around any more. Once there, she proves herself more useful than Gregory and is hoisted to power.
The show has already done a fair share of legwork building this into her story arc, so it makes sense that she would continue down that road.
Let's face it, Carol hasn't been doing too good the last couple of weeks. She's clearly having some personal issues and is wracked with guilt over all of the people she's had to put down, including the occasional kid.
That's gonna take a toll on anyone.
Carol's guilt could end in a death she feels she deserves and what better way to go out then at the hands of Negan? Especially if she gets a little redemption by stepping in for Glen.
To be fair, Negan isn't one to negotiate OR bash in a woman's skull... He does have standards after all... But it's not out of the realm of possibilities. Keep in mind that she's not alive in the books at this point so she's kind of overstayed her welcome on the show.
Also, what else can they do with her? Anyone who has hit this level of self-doubt doesn't tend to last much longer. She's already disappeared from the group once (albeit because Rick pushed her out) so having her leave again is a little redundant. Another sign that the writers are suffering from a bit of "Carol fatigue."
It's really hard to make an argument for Carol to not end up dead other than the fact that we all love Carol which is something that needs to be considered: What better reason for Rick and the gang to burn the whole place to the ground, than Carol's death?
Well, there'd be one... Which brings me to fan favorite:
Daryl currently has 11/5 odds on his death happening on Sunday's season finale according to goldderby.com. The internet has been up in arms after last week's episode ended in what seems like Daryl getting shot by Dwight, making him the favorite to meet Lucille over Glen.
Couple of things though...
First, they're not going to shoot Daryl only to bash his head in later in the episode and, trust me, if Negan is coming then Lucille must taste blood. He's not showing up just to give a speech.
Second, they're not going to have TWO main deaths in one episode. At least I don't think they will... If they did, that would be pretty ballsy. But if any show has deserved the moniker "ballsy," it's The Walking Dead.
Third, Norman Reedus is not only a fan favorite for the show, but he's also one of the "faces" of the show. He's one of the few cast members that does the talk show rounds and appears in a couple of video games. It's kind of hard to kill someone off while they're out there pimping your intellectual property, know what I mean?
BUT... All of that being said, we have to remember that Daryl is not a character in the comics and it might be time for the show's writers to get more in line with the books.
There's a few reasons as to why Daryl might be the guy.
One reason? He's not really doing anything at this point. Besides the occasional supply run with Rick and chasing down Carol, what is Daryl's role in the group any more?
At first, I thought his rivalry with Dwight might extend Daryl's stay on the show and give him a purpose, but here's the thing:
Dwight is WAY more important moving forward than Daryl ever could be. In the books, Dwight plays a KEY role and that role can't really happen if Daryl either a) kills him, or b) gets in the way of Dwight filling that role.
Based on what's happening on the show now? It's safe to say that Daryl is going to be a hindrance to Dwight doing his thing.
Of course that's IF the show follows the books. Maybe they won't. Maybe Dwight's role on the show will take a different path. Maybe Daryl is the reason The Kingdom joins the fight instead of Michonne. Maybe Negan will be so muted on the show, that he shows up just to give a cute speech and NO ONE dies on Sunday.
I doubt it, but only a few more days until we all find out.
Who do you think is going to end up having a deep, philosophical conversation with Lucille?
Will it be Glen? Carol? Daryl?