This weekend is going to not be nearly as strong overall as last weekend at the box office, but it should still be a solid start to April 2016. In this time frame last year, Fast and Furious 7 drove (pun intended) the total box office well over $200 million. This weekend will not come close to that, because nothing of blockbuster status is opening this weekend, but if holdovers do not drop too hard this weekend, later potential blockbusters this month like The Jungle Book and Huntsman: Winter's War may help push April 2016 to a new monthly record. So, without further ado, here are the predictions for the weekend.
1. Batman Vs. Superman
The easy pick for the top spot is Batman Vs. Superman. It had the 7th highest opening weekend of all time domestically ($166 million) and opened above The Hunger Games ($152.5 million) to become the new March opening weekend record holder. It should easily have the top spot for another weekend, but there is a high likelihood that it will fall pretty hard this weekend. It has had weak reviews so far from critics and fans, which does not bode well and leaves me wondering whether or not it will have enough juice to pass $400 million domestically. It is the only film to open over $160 million that has a Rotten Tomatoes score lower than 70% (it has 29%). As an aside, I have seen it and did not think it was very good. It is not the worst comic book film I have seen by any stretch of the imagination, but it had some overwhelming flaws. Ben Affleck's performance as Batman was not terrible, but it seemed uninspired and mechanical and to the casual moviegoers like myself that do not read the comics, the sudden appearance of these characters at random is confusing. I know they are supposed to be part of the DC universe, but their random appearance does not seem to benefit the structure of the film in any way. I may be trolled hard for this, but the one thing I will give the film is that Jesse Eisenberg's performance as Lex Luthor was good. His maniacal energy enhanced the character. I must admit that I thought the casting choice for Lex Luthor was a bad idea way back when, but it was actually good. Overall, I would give the film a C+. Anyways, the film should drop really hard. I am predicting it will end up in the low to mid $60 millions for the weekend.
There is not much to elaborate on here. Zootopia should be in a distant second place and put up more strong numbers from family audiences that have no other choices for family films. It should be in the mid to high $10 millions this weekend on its journey to get past $300 million domestically by the end of its run.
3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2
This should be in third place. The reviews are weak, but it should not fall too hard since the only other comedy (Meet the Blacks) is coming out and is receiving even worse word of mouth. It should end up a little below $10 million this weekend.
4. God's Not Dead 2
The entire existence of this film is a ridiculous notion to many and there was already one before it that was equally maligned. First, the films targeting the religious demographic have been relentlessly coming lately, so fatigue is likely to set in. Plus, as I previously mentioned, many think it is a stupid idea for there to be a sequel (as if we did not get the message that God is not dead the first time), so I expect it to open below $10 million.
5. Meet the Blacks
Many are unclear what this is supposed to be. Many think it is supposed to be a spoof of The Purge. It has not been marketed very much, but if people want a goofy film that will keep them entertained, they may give it a look. It is likely to open anywhere between $5 to 10 million.
Here are my official predictions for the weekend.
1. Batman Vs. Superman: $60.8 million (-63%)
2. Zootopia: $15.4 million (-36%)
3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2: $9.8 million (-46%)
4. God's Not Dead 2: $9.1 million
5. Meet the Blacks: $7.6 million