Who's In The Grave?
After months of waiting, it appears that we will finally learn which character is in the grave, first shown in season 4, episode 1 of Arrow, this Wednesday.
So far, we know that someone close to Oliver and Felicity was killed. At the time we first saw this, most people would have likely thought the killer to be Damien Darhk. But now that we have seen the plot thicken with Malcolm Merlin. He knows almost everything there is to know about Oliver and now seems to have control over Damien Darhk. Additionally Merlin is clearly out for revenge after Oliver took off his hand earlier in the season. At this point, it is probably more likely that Merlin was the killer instead of Damien Darhk.
Here is a list of the characters most likely to be in the grave.
1. Thea Queen
Now she may have been close to death before but killing her for real in this episode may not be so far-fetched. Thea is extremely close to Oliver and Felicity. Her death would easily make Oliver angry. He would be the only one left in his family without her. Additionally, in the trailer she is shown fighting Malcolm Merlin multiple times and while she appears to have him pinned down at one point, it is quite possible that he could stab her. Why would Merlin kill his own daughter? She broke off her relationship with him and it has been shown that she is not what is most important in his life. Additionally, Thea was part of the reason why Merlin ended up losing his hand and the league of assassins. If Merlin was the one to kill Thea, Oliver might have felt guilty for sparing his life. Given the fact that he says something along the lines of I will not blame myself for this sort of thing again, that would be a nice fit.
2. Laurel Lance
It might seem crazy for them to kill off Black Canary, considering that in the comics she marries Oliver Queen, but she is arguably the weakest character on the show right now. The transition from Sara Lance to Laurel Lance as Black Canary significantly hurt the character. Additionally, Damien Darhk threatened to kill her if Quentin Lance would not obey him. In the last episode, he was seen in court testifying against Darhk in front of him, with Laurel as the prosecutor. A promo for the episode also has Laurel being offered a position as DA if she drops her case against Damien Darhk. It seems likely that she will reject that offer and face the consequences. Because she is such a weak character to the TV show, it would make sense for her to be the one that's killed off. However, the question is whether or not the writers want to stray that far away from the comics.
3. Quentin Lance
He would perhaps be the easiest character for the writers to kill off. Lance has gotten in deep with Damien Darhk. Then he chose to testify against Damien Dark in court. His career is basically over and it doesn't seem like he has much of a future left. Towards the beginning of Season 4, Oliver had some emotional exchanges with him. In a way, he looked up to him. Felicity would also likely be upset because her mother was dating him throughout the season. Perhaps most consequentially, Laurel and Sara Lance will be affected by this death. It's hard to say for sure, but he does seem likely.
4. John Diggle
This seems like an obvious choice. Diggle is Oliver's closest friend and he is shown in an intense exchange with Oliver over his brother. Also, as seen in Legends of Tomorrow, Diggle does die at some point in the future. Like the actor suggested, however, it is unclear why the funeral doesn't have much evidence of a military funeral given Diggle's military career. Additionally, in the Legends of Tomorrow episode it almost gave the impression that Connor Hawke knew Diggle growing up. But if Diggle were to die, his death would obviously have an enormous impact on both Oliver and Felicity.
5. William or Samantha
Either Samantha or William would be an easy choice for the writers to kill off. After all, Merlin knows that Oliver cares for William "more than anyone in the world." However, given the fact that we have had such limited interaction with these characters, it is more likely that it will be a character that we are more familiar with. It be more impactful if it was a character that we knew better. Additionally, none of these characters were close with Felicity, so why would she be so angry of their deaths.