Every day that that May 6th approaches, my excitement for [Captain America: Civil War](tag:994409) is steadily increasing to the point that it is starting to be kinda weird. Marvel is the reigning box office champ for any franchise ever and with tons of movies on the horizon -- I don't see that changing any time soon. Last December, Star Wars decimated some box office records and they're still dominating the conversation with the upcoming Rogue One. One of the biggest questions surrounding all upcoming superhero movies -- how much money will they make?
WHY DOES IT EVEN MATTER?
There are two main reasons that we should care and hope that all movies do well in this genre at the box office. When your favorite movie kills it in the money-making area, it fills one with a certain pride (maybe it's just me) -- like your favorite team winning the Super Bowl. There's one thing that everyone understands and that is money. If these movies keep performing, then expect studios to keep trying to make the best possible movie!
This is the main one -- making money shows people that the superhero genre is not showing any signs of fatigue and it's here to stay for a very long time. You think after the success of Deadpool, people would let this go, but then BvS came out and the talk started once again. I think this will be exhausting having this talk each time after a movie under performs. If Cap's Civil War can do as well as Episode 7 -- then I think this will squash this ridiculous notion that there's fatigue going on in this genre. Some movies will over perform and some movies won't be received well by the public -- this is a subjective business and should be treated with a hint of uncertainty. If Civil Wars dominates the box office like Star Wars then this should squash the qualms of people losing interest in all things awesome!
LET'S TALK NUMBERS
So, what are the chances that Civil War can even come close to matching The Force Awakens' numbers? I don't think Cap can match the domestic opening weekend, but Marvel actually does extremely well in foreign markets. Plus, the embargo has been lifted on reviews and they're extremely positive. This word-of-mouth will help fuel the excitement of seeing the premiere heroes in cinema battling on the big screen (it really doesn't need help, but it's still awesome!). Let's check out Star Wars: Episode 7's numbers at the box office:
Domestic: $935,585,257 45.3%
Foreign: $1,128,500,000 54.7%
Opening Domestic: $247,966,675
Yeah, those are some amazing numbers and they kinda blow away all of Marvel's movies. Yet, Civil War is truly unique in Marvel's pantheon of movies. Here are the numbers for Marvel's two biggest movies -- The Avengers and Avengers: Age of Ultron:
Marvel's The Avengers $1,519.6 / $623.4 41/ $896.2 2012
[The Avengers: Age Of Ultron](tag:293035) $1,405.4 / $459.0 / $946.4
Iron Man 3 $1,215.4 / $409.0 / $806.4
Opening Weekend Domestic Only: Marvel has 3 of the top 5 EVER
May 4, 2012 Marvel's The Avengers: $207,438,708
May 1, 2015 The Avengers: Age of Ultron: $191,271,109
May 3, 2013 Iron Man 3: $174,144,585
THE REVIEWS ARE IN
The shaming of “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice” will continue apace — or better still, be forgotten entirely — in the wake of “Captain America: Civil War,” a decisively superior hero-vs.-hero extravaganza that also ranks as the most mature and substantive picture to have yet emerged from the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Very much an “Avengers” movie in scope and ambition if not title (the conspicuous absence of Thor and Hulk notwithstanding), this chronicle of an epic clash between two equally noble factions, led by Captain America and Iron Man, proves as remarkable for its dramatic coherence and thematic unity as for its dizzyingly inventive action sequences; viewers who have grown weary of seeing cities blow up ad nauseam will scarcely believe their luck at the relative restraint and ingenuity on display.
Corporate filmmaking with an enormous economic investment at stake has the power to force creative people to operate within the art-destroying prison walls of a marketing strategy. But the Marvel Cinematic Universe, an empire building itself on a foundation that roughly amounts to a house style, tends to stay relatively on balance. Screenwriting team Christopher Markus and Stephen McFeely (responsible for the previous two “Captain America” films) efficiently move plot blocks into place and check off interlocking points of order, but they do so while never forgetting that their characters are more than brands to build.
“Who needs a villain when you have Steve and Tony? Both protagonists. Both antagonists. And drawing other power-people to their cause in surprising ways. The clashes go far beyond the set-up squabbles of Avengers Assemble. Or even that other big 2016 superhero showdown. Forget Batman v Superman. Here you get Ant-Man v Spider-Man, Hawkeye v Black Widow, Scarlet Witch v Vision, The Winter Soldier v Black Panther and (well, duh)Captain America v Iron Man, all rolled into one. And that is what you call the ultimate Marvel superhero event.”
“In many ways, Civil War is the Marvel team-up sequel Age of Ultron should have been. If The Winter Soldier was about SHIELD being ripped apart from the inside, Civil War pulls the same trick with the Avengers themselves, screenwriters Christopher Markus and Stephen McFeely carving out satisfying character arcs, or at the very least moments, for every major player (minus the MIA Thor and Hulk). Crucially, despite the colossal cast of characters and sprawling runtime, the oft-repeated assertion that this isn’t just Avengers 2.5 holds true – it’s also a Captain America movie through and through, further exploring The Winter Soldier’s major theme – the cost of freedom – while Bucky is even more integral to the plot than he was in the film that bore his own name.”
The Daily Beast
Captain America: Civil War marks a watershed moment in the vaunted annals of comic book cinema: finally, a big budget superhero sequel that manages to be both effortlessly entertaining and utterly sobering, instead of just one of those things—or, as we’ve endured too frequently in the past, neither of them. (Looking at you, Batman v Superman.) You might argue that other films that have come before Marvel’s Captain America threequel have achieved such equilibrium, but let’s be real, you’d be lying to yourself. Not even Disney’s Marvel machine has yet been able to shake off formula or self-seriousness in service of spandexed superhero franchising.
DOES IT MATTER?
This is the question -- does it matter that Marvel has a great record in May and critics are showering it with praise, just like they did with Star Wars? Deadpool did tremendously well this past February and one must think that it was due to the superb advertising and most importantly -- great word-of-mouth! BvS faltered with how divisive the movie became and had way too many plot-holes for a movie in the works for three-years. The main question -- how big will Civil War be at the box office? There's no way to know, but I think it'll be Marvel's highest-grossing movie of all time. I don't think it'll reach Star Wars, but the movie will reach new heights from comics at the cinema!
PREDICTIONS: Domestic Opening Weekend: 220 mill, Worldwide gross: 1.8 bill