ByGenevieve Van Voorhis, writer at
Game of Thrones, ASOUE, and all things '00s. Twitter: @gen_vanvee Email: [email protected]
Genevieve Van Voorhis

No official spoilers for Season 6 ahead, just speculation!

Cersei Lannister said it best:

"When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die."

Most characters on Game Of Thrones end up in the latter camp, and the majority of those killings come way out of left field. How is a fan to predict just who's going to get the axe next?

A group of students from Technical University of Munich decided to program a new software to predict impending doom.

They call their tool A Song Of Ice And Data. One of the students described the project to The Guardian:

"Our motivation for the entire project was basically this: there are many wikis and similar things about Game of Thrones, and we analyzed the data to understand how the world of Game of Thrones would react and what they would do, to find out who's the next to die. Which of the houses are the most dangerous, and that is an unbelievably exciting theme, and that was my motivation to take part in this project."
Source: Pandawhale
Source: Pandawhale

Which factors exactly go in to deciding a character's chances of survival? A lot. Twenty-four of them, to be exact. One student explained:

"We attempted to calculate 31 factors to see whether they were important or not to predict whether a character would live or die. These factors, for example, how old the character is, who is their father, mother, whether their father or mother is still alive if they're appearing in one book or in another. Finally, we found out that only 24 of these factors were important, and we used those 24 factors in our algorithm and they were important to the calculation."

So who does science think is the weakest link? The answer was clear.

Source: The Guardian
Source: The Guardian

According to A Song Of Ice And Data, Tommen Baratheon is 97% likely to be the next to go. It kind of makes sense, right?

Source: The Guardian
Source: The Guardian

A+, guys!


Do you think Tommen Baratheon will be the next to die?

Source: The Guardian


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