The box office looks to pick back up in a major way as the only new nationwide release is looking to score one of the highest opening weekends of all time and might even challenge Jurassic World's opening ($208.8 million) to claim the Summer opening weekend record. As there are four more potential blockbusters later in May, this might become the highest grossing May in history. Here is how I predict this weekend will go down.
1. Captain America: Civil War
This should obviously be in first place by a very wide margin as no other major studios were foolish enough to put anything in this weekend's slot. A film like this has come out six weeks ago. I am referring to the widely maligned Batman Vs. Superman. That film had the seventh highest opening weekend of all time with $166 million. I see no scenario in which Civil War opens lower than that. For one thing, unlike Batman Vs. Superman, it does have both critics and fans on its side. Most of the Avengers are in this film and the conflict between Captain America and Iron Man has been highly anticipated for a long time. The first Captain America opened to $65.1 million on its way to $176.7 million in July of 2011. In April 2014, its significantly stronger sequel, The Winter Soldier, opened to $95 million and closed with $259.8 million. Civil War opens in the Summer kickoff weekend in which Marvel films have been opening since 2007. Most of those films had gone on to earn a very large amount, which should help Civil War. Plus, this looks more like another Avengers film than another stand alone Captain America film. Combine that with the addition of Black Panther, a new Spiderman that steals the show, and the highest early reviews of any Marvel film since The Avengers, and Civil War should blow past Winter Soldier's $259.8 million domestic total without even blinking. However, I predict it will open slightly below Age of Ultron ($191.3 million), because, even though it will likely have longer legs, it may be hurt by Mother's Day being on Sunday. Then again, it may not matter and it may open higher. At worst, it ought to be opening higher than Iron Man 3 ($174.1 million). Either way, there is no question that it will be one of the biggest films of all time.
2. The Jungle Book
After taking the top spot at the box office thrice in a row, The Jungle Book will fall to second place. Still, it will not be slowed down too much. It should continue having its light drops on its way past well over $300 million. It is likely to be in the mid to high $20 millions this weekend.
Keanu should keep its third place spot this weekend. It has decent reviews as well, so it should not take too steep a drop. It will likely earn slightly above $5 million this weekend.
4. The Huntsman: Winter's War
It dropped 50.5% last weekend which was shockingly lighter than its predecessor's 59% drop. However, it is likely to continue its steep decline this weekend and earn between $4 and $5 million this weekend.
5. Mother's Day
Mother's Day should be in fifth. It is likely to drop hard, because of how atrocious its reception was, but it should not drop too hard because it should benefit a little from Mother's Day being this Sunday.
Here are my official predictions for the weekend.
1. Captain America: Civil War: $190.5 million
2. The Jungle Book: $28.8 million (-34%)
3. Keanu: $5.5 million (-42%)
4. The Huntsman: Winter's War: $4.4 million (-54%)
5. Mother's Day: $4.2 million (-50%)