The box office outcome this weekend will be very hard to predict. Civil War will attempt to fend off two potential blockbusters in its third frame. Angry Birds and Neighbors 2 are both playing to a vastly different target audience, so predicting which of those two will beat the other in and of itself will be a challenge. I have predicted the number one film correctly five weekends in a row, but this weekend might be the one where that streak comes to an end. At this same time last year, Mad Max: Fury Road and Pitch Perfect 2 were put side by side. It looks like this weekend will not quite have opening numbers like Pitch Perfect 2's $69.2 million, but they should still nonetheless do strong business. So, here are my predictions for Pre-Memorial Day Weekend 2016.
1. Angry Birds
The tricky part of these predictions will be predicting the top three films. I have a feeling Angry Birds will take the top spot, but not by very much. My predictions for opening weekend are now lowered considerably from when I made the Summer 2016 predictions list and pegged this for a $76 million opening. It has mixed early word of mouth right now, but it could be one of those underrated films that will still do well like The Lorax or the Hotel Transylvania films. It does have two things going for it, though. First, animated options have pretty much fizzled out by this point and it has nothing standing in its way until Finding Dory in a month. It also has an advantage over the newcomer Neighbors 2 (different target audience, I know) in that it is an original film. The source material is not original, but it is not a sequel. I am looking forward to both of these films and will probably see both of them this weekend. For the opening weekend, I am placing this in the high $40 millions.
2. Neighbors 2
Back in 2014, Neighbors put up a surprisingly solid run with a $49 million opening on its way to a $150.2 million. Its sequel finds it relying on more of the same, though, except with a sorority instead of a fraternity. That would normally be enough to turn off a lot of moviegoers, but the trailers have kept people laughing. Early word of mouth is shockingly not too bad, either. It is not as good as it was for the original, but not too far behind. It is not great word of mouth, but it is not embarrassingly bad like it was for The Hangover 2 or 3. I predict it will open to about the same as the original did and be between $48 million and $50 million.
3. Captain America: Civil War
Civil War looks to fall to third place in its third frame, but still be very close to Angry Birds and Neighbors 2. In their third weekends, Iron Man 3 and Age of Ultron fell 50.7% and 50%, respectively. Civil War has far better reviews than both of those, though, and will likely end up with a lighter third weekend drop and seize its last opportunity to bring in big numbers before X-Men Apocalypse arrives in theaters next weekend. It will likely be somewhere in the low $40 millions.
4. The Nice Guys
In fourth place should be newcomer crime film The Nice Guys. It is about two unlikely partners working together to find a missing woman. The reviews are very strong so far, but it has not been nearly as advertised as those I mentioned in the top three and will naturally be far behind them. It should have a decent opening, though. I am predicting it will wind up opening between $16 million and $18 million.
5. The Jungle Book
The Jungle Book should round out the top five and drop by a small amount on its way to eventually pass $350 million by the end of its run.
Here are my official predictions for Pre-Memorial Day Weekend 2016.
1. Angry Birds: $49.2 million
2. Neighbors 2: $48.9 million
3. Captain America: Civil War: $40 million (-45%)
4. The Nice Guys: $17.1 million
5. The Jungle Book: $13.1 million (-23%)