This weekend, three new titles go nationwide. None of them are likely to do exceptionally well, and the weak holdovers will not help this weekend be stronger than last weekend. Here is how I predict it will go down.
1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2
The winner of the weekend should be Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2. In August 2014, the original shocked everybody by opening to $65.6 million and having enough legs to carry it to $191.2 million, despite bad reviews. According to early word of mouth, reviews for the sequel are slightly better, though still not good. The addition of two fan favorite characters could help bring in some audiences, but given the bad luck that sequels have received lately, I will place it at a lower opening. I am predicting an opening weekend in the mid to high $40 millions, but even that might be too generous. In a few days, we will know for sure.
2. X-Men: Apocalypse
X-Men Apocalypse opened to $65.8 million last weekend. While there are other X-Men films that have opened below that, it is still safe to call it a disappointing opening, especially given how high Days of Future past opened that same weekend two years ago ($90.8 million). The reviews for Apocalypse were not good, which suggests that a severe second weekend decline is in order and it will likely earn between $22 million and $25 million this weekend.
The Lonely Island movie Popstar is likely to do decent business. Early word of mouth is strong and it has been advertised a lot lately. I am predicting that it will have an opening weekend between $15 million and $16 million.
4. Angry Birds
Angry Birds is likely to make up for its steep 50.8% second weekend drop with a lighter decline. It should earn between $12 and $13 million.
5. Me Before You
Rounding out the top five should be Me Before You. This is based off of a novel. It is likely to do decent business as early reviews have been positive so far, but not too well as it has not been advertised very much.
Here are my official predictions for the weekend:
1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2: $46.7 million
2. X-Men: Apocalypse: $23 million (-65%)
3. Popstar: $15.2 million
4. Angry Birds: $12.9 million (-31%)
5. Me Before You: $12.2 million