The three way battle for first place this weekend will be interesting. I have predicted the number one film correctly for eight weeks in a row, but that streak might come to an end here. Any of these could easily be number one. Two of these are sequels ( The Conjuring 2 and Now You See Me 2). Both of their predecessors were unexpected hits during Summer 2013.
The third newcomer this weekend is Warcraft, a video game adaptation. Both sequels are looking to reverse the bad luck that most sequels have been having so far this year, while Warcraft will attempt to bring in audiences who grew up with the game. Between those three and the holdovers, the weekend should see a bump from last weekend. So without further ado, here is how I predict the weekend will go down.
1. The Conjuring 2
In July of 2013, The Conjuring shocked audiences when it delivered a $41.9 million opening and displayed strong legs (for a horror film) that carried it to a $137.4 million total. It seems like a miracle that would not be easily replicated or surpassed. However, if any film has a slight chance at doing so, it is the sequel. James Wan is in the director's chair again. It also helps that the sequel has strong early reviews (almost as strong as that of the first). Normally, horror sequels have a poor track record in terms of quality, but the general word of mouth suggests that the sequel, like the original, is in fact scary (in a good way). I still think it will open lower than the original, but not far below that. I am pegging it for an opening in the mid $30 millions.
The film adaptation of the uber popular game that has been around since 2004 is here. Most people around my age (21) have grown up with it and there is a nostalgia factor coming in. However, I am tentatively putting it in second place because game adaptations have not really been setting the box office on fire. Not helping matters is the fact that its early reviews are poor.
I am pegging this for an opening weekend around $28 million to $29 million.
3. Now You See Me 2
The original was unexpectedly solid in May 2013 opening to $29.4 million and held up very well, closing to $117.7 million, despite mediocre reviews. Most of the cast is there this time around, and Daniel Radcliffe is thrown into the mix. Early reviews suggest the sequel is a little worse, but not much so. One of the three newcomers is likely to be the odd one out and this one is probably it. I am predicting it will have an opening weekend around $20 million to $22 million.
4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2
This opened 46% lower than its predecessor with $35.3 million. Given that the reviews for the sequel are slightly better than that of the original (although still not good), it ought to have a steep second weekend drop, but not quite as steep as the second weekend drop of 56.5%. It will probably take in $17 million or so this weekend.
5. Me Before You
Me Before You is likely to round out the top five. It will probably have a light decline, because it was well liked and because there is nothing else like this in theaters at this time.
Here are my official predictions for the weekend.
1. The Conjuring 2: $35.1 million
2. Warcraft: $28.3 million
3. Now You See Me 2: $21.3 million
4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2: $17.3 million (-51%)
5. Me Before You: $11.9 million (-37%)